Brisbane House Prices Growth Begins to Slow

Property prices continue to rise across Brisbane, albeit at a more modest pace, as rate rises, high inflation, poor affordability and increasing supply fuel steeper declines in house values across the country.

Brisbane house prices further escalated with the onset on Covid-19 when people placed a higher value on privacy with interstate migration, propelled by residents of Sydney and Melbourne moving to the Sunshine State for cheaper dwellings and a change in lifestyle.

Continuing the trend, median house prices rose by 3.6 per cent in the three months to June, while median unit prices inched up by 1.6 per cent, according to quarterly median sales results released by Queensland’s peak real estate body, REIQ. 

Real Estate Institute of Queensland chief executive Antonia Mercorella said despite the slowdown during the quarter, Brisbane’s annual growth rate rose 27.2 per cent year-on-year.

Mercorella said Brisbane’s growth over the June quarter, as Sydney and Melbourne reversed, had meant median house prices had now ticked over the million-dollar mark and units cracked half-a-million-dollar mark. 

Over the three months to June, Brisbane’s local government area median house price remained steady, experiencing a slight fluctuation to $1.07 million from $1.09 million.

“This quarter we’re still seeing healthy growth in most major markets, but at a more sustainable level, as Queensland’s property market appears to finally have caught up on the growth it was well overdue for,” Mercorella said.

“What this means on the ground is that the property buying frenzy has relaxed, allowing a slower, more considered approach from buyers which is evidenced by longer days on market.

“The rise of risky behaviours such as buying sight unseen, impossibly short settlement periods, and waiving cooling off periods are hopefully behind us now.”

House median sales—data as of June 2022 quarter

Unit median sales—data as of June 2022 quarter

Brisbane suburbs breaking the million-dollar-mark, based on sales in the quarter, included Mitchelton, Chermside West, Ferny Grove, and Everton Park, while Bulimba, on the southern banks of the Brisbane river, cracked the $2-million mark.

Mercorella said Brisbane’s property market remained resilient despite recent hits to hip pockets and borrowing constraints but was now showing signs of calming.

“Consecutive interest rate rises and inflation are seeing households tightening their belts” she said.

“However, this is against the backdrop of very low unemployment, pent up wage growth expectations, continued high interstate migration, an extremely tight rental market, and the return of international migration further boosting our state’s population.

“These are all factors that will buoy Brisbane property prices, and should give buyers confidence in investing.”

The changing market dynamics of supply and demand made it the busiest June quarter on record for Brisbane’s auction market, with a high volume of new listings over the three months to June.

The Corelogic home value index for July declined -1.3 per cent nationally, a third consecutive month of declines, as Brisbane also edged into negative growth territory for the first time since August 2020.

Over the most recent month, median values for dwelling values fell -0.8 per cent, driven by a -1.1 decline in house prices as the median value of units increased by 0.7 per cent.

Brisbane home prices are now forecast to rise slightly, by 1 per cent, this year ahead of a -12 per cent drop in 2023, according to ANZ economists.

ANZ is tipping house prices nationally to fall by between 15 and 20 per cent by the end of next year, in response to higher official interest rates and inflation, before starting to recover in 2024.

Inflation reached a 21-year high of 6.1 per cent in the three months to June, below the market consensus of 6.3 per cent. 

Underlying inflation, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s preferred measure, rose 1.5 per cent in April-June, and gained 4.9 per cent over the year, the highest rate since June 1991.