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Brisbane Housing Market Insights: April 2021


The Urban Developer’s Brisbane housing market insights for April reveals increased demand for houses has been underpinned by increasing consumer sentiment and a surge in interstate migration.

This resource, to be updated monthly, will collate and examine the economic levers pushing and pulling Brisbane’s housing market.

Combining market research, rolling indices and expert market opinion, this evolving hub will act as a pulse check for those wanting to take a closer look at the movements across the market.


Brisbane house prices have soared to record heights after a steady 12 months of growth and a rebound in listings and sales during recent months.

Brisbane's housing market has remained particularly unaltered by the closure of international borders, where historically high demand from overseas migrants has been disrupted.

Brisbane advanced a further 2.4 per cent during March, pushing it up 4.8 per cent for the recent quarter and 6.8 per cent for the year to date.

The current median value for dwellings is $548,260, which is $12,642 higher than just a month ago.

The median house price of $607,969 continues to attract interstate migrants from the larger markets of Sydney, where the median is now $1.1m, and Melbourne at $859,097.

The premium end of the Brisbane's housing market is still leading the acceleration in capital gains with upper-quartile property values rising by 3.1 per cent. Lower quartile property values were up 1.1 per cent throughout March.


Brisbane median house and unit price values

TypeMonthQuarterAnnualMedian
All2.4%▲4.8%▲6.8%▲$548,260▲
Houses2.6%▲5.3%▲7.9%▲$607,969▲
Units1.0%▶2.4%▲1.9%▲$400,866▲

^Source: Corelogic Hedonic Home Value Index - March


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Brisbane has clocked its highest auction clearance rate in six months.

CoreLogic’s weekly auction clearance rate across the combined capitals has been at or above 80 per cent just five times since 2008, and four of those were in March, 2021.

The week ending March 7, recorded Brisbane's highest auction clearance rate on record—82.3 per cent—while also being the busiest week for auctions since late March, 2018.

Total listings across the country remain 26 per cent below the five-year average.


Brisbane auction clearance rates

WeekClearance rateTotal Auctions
Week ending 7 March 202182.3%107
Week ending 14 March 202165.2%110
Week ending 21 March 202173.0%151
Week ending 28 March 202168.8%191

^Source: Corelogic Auction Clearance Rates - March


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Renters are paying more to live in a unit in Brisbane than in Melbourne counterparts....


Gross rental yields in Brisbane remains favourable compared to Sydney and Melbourne at 4.3 per cent.

According to the SQM, Brisbane’s gross rental yield for houses is currently 4 per cent and 5.2 per cent for units.

Vacancy rates are where your jaw may drop, with Brisbane at just 1.5 per cent, and other locations below 1 per cent.

Traditionally Brisbane's vacancy rates have been tight, hovering well below the level of 2.5 per cent, which represents a balanced rental market.


Brisbane residential rental vacancy rate

CityMarch 2021 vacancy rateMonthly % change
Brisbane1.5%►0.0%►

^Source: SQM Research - March


Rental stock on market

CityMarch 2021 vacanciesVacancy net loss
Brisbane5407▲97▲

^Source: SQM Research - March


Brisbane rent prices

TypeRentMonthly % change Annual % change
Houses $483.70▲1.1%▲3.2%▲
Units $383.60▲0.2%▼1.4%▲

^Source: SQM Research - March


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The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwelling units approved in Queensland in February was 3,930, 40.5 per cent higher than recorded in January.

Loan data shows investors have started coming back into a housing market they had largely vacated and the boom is being driven overwhelmingly by established owner occupiers and first home buyers.


Queensland building approvals

^Australian Bureau of Statistics, (Suspension of trend series between May 2020 and Jul 2020 due to Covid-19)

DwellingApprovedMonthly % change
Houses2792▲ 25.4%▲
Units3930▲40.5%▲

^Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; Reference period February


Queensland home loan lending indicators

RegionFirst home buyer loan commitmentsFirst home buyer ratio - dwellingsFirst home buyer ratio - housing
Queensland3078▲ ▼39.6%▼34.7% ▼

^Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics - February


Queensland interstate migration

RegionSeptember (quarter) 2020 arrivalsSeptember (quarter) 2020 departuresSeptember 2020 quarter net
Queensland22,317▼15,080▼7,237▲

^Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics - September quarter 2020


Brisbane’s housing market: policy updates

Australia’s central bank will maintain low interest rates to support the country’s ongoing economic recovery and surging housing market, buoyed by its busiest Easter auction market on record.

Read more: RBA Policy Underscores Strong Recovery

Strong tailwinds will bolster the Australian economy through the second half of the year, but macro-prudential measures are likely to be introduced to ease house price pressures in 2022.

Read more: Prudential Changes to Curb House Prices

Queensland faces a “hard road” during the next four years as the state recovers from the coronavirus pandemic, Treasurer Cameron Dick says.

Read more: Queensland Budget Announcement


Brisbane housing market forecasts

ANZ economists forecast Brisbane house prices will rise by 9.5 per cent next year, as low interest rates and government stimulus flow through the economy while Commonwealth Bank updated its forecasts, projecting a strong rebound in prices across the second half of 2021.

CBA now expects Brisbane house prices to increase by 16.6 per cent to December 2022 compared to 13.7 per cent in Sydney and 12.4 per cent in Melbourne.

Westpac has also updated its property forecasts, with Brisbane real estate prices tipped to surge 20 per cent between 2022 and 2023.


What the experts are saying about Brisbane's housing market

Eliza Owen, Head of Research, Corelogic


Eliza Owen
Head of Research
Corelogic

“In an environment where there's no international migration, that internal movement is really benefiting markets relative to other parts of the country.

“In terms of prices steadying or falling across Queensland, I wouldn't expect to see that until we get a significant uplift in the amount of stock on the market which is unlikely as people aren't really moving as much at the moment.

“Or we see the cash rate increase, and as such mortgage rates would increase, and again that's not something we would expect until the inflation target is between 2 and 3 per cent.”

Dr Nicola Powell


Nicola Powell
Senior Research Analyst
Domain

“First-home buyers became active utilising incentives, and low mortgage rates became the norm.

“Upsizing buyers were enticed by cheaper credit and altered their wish-lists to think more about property characteristics such as space and lifestyle, rather than commute time and distance to the CBD.

“Some of the strongest rates of growth were recorded in Thorneside, Virginia, Highgate Hill, Carina Heights and Yeronga, with house prices surging more than 20 per cent annually.”

Gareth Aird


Gareth Aird
Head of Economics
Commonwealth Bank

“Brisbane is less reliant than both cities on international migration that has been impacted by border closures.

“The vacancy rate in Brisbane is around 2 per cent compared to 4 per cent in Sydney and Melbourne.

“The boom is being driven by record low mortgage rates coupled with a V-shaped recovery in the labour market.”


Sydney Aerial


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Melbourne (small)


Melbourne Housing Market Insights
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Article originally posted at: https://www.theurbandeveloper.com/articles/brisbane-housing-market-update

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