The Urban Developer
AdvertiseEventsWebinarsUrbanity
Industry Excellence
Urban Leader
Sign In
Membership
Latest
Menu
Location
Sector
Category
Content
Type
Newsletters
UPCOMING EVENT - INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS SUMMIT 16 OCTOBER, SYDNEY
INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS SUMMIT - TICKETS NOW ON SALE
LEARN MOREDETAILS
TheUrbanDeveloper
Follow
About
About Us
Membership
Awards
Events
Webinars
Listings
Resources
Terms & Conditions
Commenting Policy
Privacy Policy
Republishing Guidelines
Editorial Charter
Complaints Handling Policy
Contact
General Enquiries
Advertise
Contribution Enquiry
Project Submission
Membership Enquiry
Newsletter
Stay up to date and with the latest news, projects, deals and features.
Subscribe
ADVERTISEMENT
SHARE
11
print
Print
ResidentialRenee McKeownTue 14 Jul 20

Waning Consumer Confidence Will Impact Property Prices

40baf1ea-3872-4e05-8d4f-513c3355c730

Economists predict property prices will still fall 10 to 15 per cent as poor consumer confidence and employment figures come in.

The latest figures from ANZ-Roy Morgan show confidence fell for the third week in a row with deteriorating conditions in Melbourne the “most likely primary contributor to the turn in sentiment”.

This was cemented by the Australian Bureau of Statistics weekly figures which showed total payroll jobs at the end of June were still 5.7 per cent below mid-March.

ANZ head of Australian economics David Plank said the biggest fall was seen in "current economic" conditions, which were down around 15 per cent; and fiscal support for residents would be vital in the months to come.

“In contrast, sentiment toward personal finances is close to unchanged, highlighting the role that the massive fiscal stimulus has played in shielding people from the direct fall-out of the economic slump triggered by the health response to the pandemic,” Plank said.

Sentiment in housing markets also collapsed in recent months according to the NAB quarterly Australian residential property survey.

There was a sharp downturn for all states particularly NSW and Victoria, and the biggest impact going forward would be rising unemployment and consumer confidence in general.

Related: Auctions, New Home Sales Up Despite Lockdown


Dwelling price forecast

City201820192020f2021f
Sydney-8.9%5.3%-4.7%-4.9%
Melbourne-7.0%5.3%-7.3% -6.5%
Brisbane0.2%0.3%-1.3%-1.5%
Adelaide1.3%-0.2%0.1%-1.2%
Perth-4.7%-6.8%-7.5%-4.6%
Hobart8.7%3.9%1.3%-2.4%
Cap City Avg-6.1%3.0%-4.6%-4.3%

^Source: CoreLogic, NAB Economics

NAB group chief economist Alan Oster said they still expected to see falls in property prices of around 10-15 per cent over the next year or so.

“While prices have held up slightly better than expected, they have now declined for two consecutive months across the capitals and we expect this to continue for some time yet,” Oster said.

“This easing in prices in Sydney and Melbourne comes after a very strong period in growth from mid-2019 where prices troughed.

“While the initial Covid-19 related restrictions on housing activity have eased, the economy has undergone a very large contraction, and while we appear to have passed the trough in activity, it will take time for the recovery to unfold.”

The survey also showed new and established markets were being bolstered by owner occupiers and foreign investors during the second quarter.

ResidentialInternationalFinanceReal EstateSector
AUTHOR
Renee McKeown
More articles by this author
ADVERTISEMENT
TOP STORIES
Korean coliving hero
Exclusive

Disconnection by Design: Why ‘Untech’ is the Next Big Amenity

Clare Burnett
5 Min
Global Shifts Redraw the Map for Australia’s Office Market
Exclusive

Office Eyes Slowdown as New Stock Supply Becomes a Trickle

Vanessa Croll
7 Min
Salta MD Sam Tarascio
Exclusive

Why Salta Won’t Break Ground on $400m Pipeline

Leon Della Bosca
7 Min
Exclusive

Precinct Proposals Bloom as Brisbane Middle-Ring Sheds its Past

Phil Bartsch
8 Min
Exclusive

Newest Land Lease Player Plots Sector Shake-Up

Taryn Paris
5 Min
View All >
Development

Finalists Announced for The Urban Developer’s Urban Leader Awards 2025​

David Di Marco
Korean coliving hero
Exclusive

Disconnection by Design: Why ‘Untech’ is the Next Big Amenity

Clare Burnett
Policy

Momentum for Brisbane Vertical Neighbourhoods Grows

Phil Bartsch AND Taryn Paris
The Brisbane council has unveiled its next phase to bolster higher density development as it faces a 210,800-home under-…
LATEST
Development

Finalists Announced for The Urban Developer’s Urban Leader Awards 2025​

David Di Marco
9 Min
Korean coliving hero
Exclusive

Disconnection by Design: Why ‘Untech’ is the Next Big Amenity

Clare Burnett
5 Min
Policy

Momentum for Brisbane Vertical Neighbourhoods Grows

Phil Bartsch AND Taryn Paris
5 Min
Retail

Sydney Investor Pays $62.75m for Gosford Retail Asset

Lindsay Saunders
3 Min
View All >
ADVERTISEMENT
Article originally posted at: https://www.theurbandeveloper.com/articles/covid-consumer-confidence-jobs-pushes-property-prices