The Australian Capital Territory, land-locked by New South Wales and wrapped around the national capital Canberra, is starting to feel every bit of its 112 years. At 2280sq km, the ACT is slightly smaller than Luxembourg. But with an estimated resident population of 464,601 in March—twice what it was 40 years ago—the territory and the capital are having a fresh look at development. They have to. The Australian Bureau of Statistics says by 2050 Canberra will add somewhere between 170,000 and 295,000 new residents. “We have determined that we need to deliver 100,000 new dwellings to meet our population demand by 2050,” says the man currently responsible for making sure it all happens. Ben Ponton has been the ACT’s chief planner since 2017. And no, he says, the ACT is not running out of land. Or, at least, not immediately. “But probably within the next 15 to 20 years,” he says. “There is only so much land and this is a real issue for the ACT.” ▲ Geocon’s Wayfarer residential tower—at the time of construction it was Canberra's tallest apartment building. In fact, in April of 2018 construction began on the first stage of what is called Ginninderry, a 30-year project, which aims to house 30,000 people in 11,500 new homes. The 1600-ha development—a 60-40 joint venture between the ACT government and Corkhill Brothers subsidiary Riverview Developments—is 13km north-west of Civic in Canberra’s centre. It begins in West Belconnen, just beyond the suburbs of Holt and Macgregor…and then crosses the ACT-NSW border. It’s the first cross-border development in Canberra’s history. “The future of greenfield land development for the ACT is almost certainly going to be on the other side of the border,” Canberra resident and a director at Purdon Planning Dan Stewart told T he Urban Developer. Stewart says Canberrans are often choosing to cross the border into NSW for somewhere to live. “They can probably get more bang for their buck in terms of buying power,” he says. “And they can certainly get the lifestyle benefits of larger blocks, small hobby farms and the sort of rural residential lifestyle that a lot of people are quite happy to take.” He points to areas just outside the ACT such as Yass and Murrumbateman to the north, Bungendore to the west, and Royalla and Jerrabomberra, to the south and south-east. “My view is those areas have all sprung up in large part because of the demand from the ACT for lifestyle, for value and for a bit more space,” he says. ▲ Canberra's light rail opened in 2019. Planners are encouraging high-density development along its path. By most reports, both the NSW and the Territory governments have been willing to negotiate over what amounts to a “land grab” by Canberra. Many NSW residents work in the national capital but the cash-strapped regional councils where they live struggle to provide essential services such as roads, rubbish collection and water for the growing population. While for its part, Canberra has its own issues with providing services to the outskirts of the Territory. Services, such as public transport. In 1913 Sir Walter Burley Griffin beat out 137 other designers for the privilege of designing a bush capital. His plan was predicated on a high-density centre with wide avenues to allow for mass transit. He wanted trams. It would be 106 years before Canberra got the first stage of a light rail link—an initial 12km and 14 stops linking the northern town centre of Gungahlin to Civic. Stage Two—another 11km with 12 stops between Canberra and Woden in the southern suburbs—will finish sometime next year. The federal government is committing $218 million. The Territory about $61 million. The pressure on planners as well as developers for more density, closer to the city has been considerable. Chief planner Ponton says a major planning shift came in 2018. Before that the government had encouraged a 50-50 split. That is, half infill and half greenfield sites. ▲ The Australian Bureau of Statistics says Canberra's population will grow to between 550.000 and 760,000 by 2050. “But the 2018 planning strategy took the approach of developing a compact and efficient city,” says Ponton. “So, compact in terms of density and efficient in terms of infrastructure and servicing.” Today, like major cities along Australia’s eastern seaboard, the planners want 70 per cent of Canberra’s growth to be within the existing urban footprint. Only 30 per cent will be greenfield development. “And I wouldn’t be surprised if in the next iteration of the planning strategy—but that’s not for five years—we might see that ratio changing even further, to be more favourable to more infill development.” Developers have been quick to pounce on the new strategy, with major residential developments springing up in established neighbourhoods, in part driven by proximity to Canberra’s light rail. In July this year Liebke and Co—a Canberra-based and family real estate and property investment firm— filed plans for 100 apartments in an eight-storey tower at 90 Northbourne Avenue, Braddon. It was the first time the site had changed hands in 50 years. “We’re seeing a slower rate of greenfield land release and in parallel to that the government is actively encouraging brownfield development, which is where you’ve seen all those big apartment buildings coming up,” Purdon Planning’s Stewart says. Belconnen has seen the most significant infill of any of the town centres. Just this month, JWLand—also a Canberra-based developer— unveiled concept plans  for a $400-million mixed-use precinct at Belconnen, including a 19-storey residential tower with 436 apartments. ▲ Doma’s Melrose residential development at Woden. And a real estate funds manager is eyeing a  hotel and build-to-rent project , also at Belconnen, which will include 300 apartments and a 50-key hotel. Elanor Investors reportedly snapped up Belconnen Markets, now known as Capital Food Market, a carpark and vacant development site for $44 million in 2018. “There’s no doubt in the last 10 years we’ve seen building heights, apartment buildings, going from around 10 storeys, to where we’re now routinely seeing 15 to 20 storeys and quite a few 20-plus as well,” Stewart says. “And the government’s been very considered in where it’s willing to support the height and what that support looks like.” That’s been a deliberate policy by the Territory’s planners. Four years’ work culminated this week, when the government’s so-called new Territory Plan went into effect, with new design guidelines aimed at encouraging higher density closer to city centres. In some residential zones, for example, dual-occupancy developments will be allowed on bigger blocks. Minister for Planning and Land Management Mick Gentleman said the new planning documents had come about after a lengthy consultation process with the community and the industry. “We listened to and considered all the feedback we received, and these documents strike the balance with the range of views we’ve heard across Canberra, best practice and planning for growth and sustainability,” he said. ▲ The ACT's new planning strategy will allow dual-occupancy developments on bigger blocks in some Canberra suburbs. “We have listened to feedback and concerns regarding new housing— particularly infill developments.” Ponton agrees there has “been a focus in the last few years on very high density development”, although a lot of impetus has come from the developers themselves. Geocon, Canberra’s biggest developer, has finished a number of major projects in recent years, including Metropol in Canberra City in September, 2021, comprising 552 apartments across three buildings. Its biggest mixed-use project to date is the Republic Precinct in Belconnen with five buildings and more than 1200 apartments. And, at the time of its construction, Geocon’s $125-million Wayfarer tower—with 331 apartments and also at Belconnen—was the tallest residential apartment building in Canberra. Ponton says a key feature of the work they’ve been doing over the past four years has been to make sure they have the systems in place and the work program clearly identified to allow developers to do their job. “We wanted to make sure that we’re able to deliver, or assist the industry to deliver, on that need for 100,000 additional houses by 2050. “For the majority of the infill development that the city needs, that will be the private sector buying private crown leases, or private land, and taking advantage of the opportunities presented by the planning framework,” he says. “That’s that degree of certainty that I think the industry needs.” You are currently experiencing  The Urban Developer  Plus (TUD+), our premium membership for property professionals.  Click here to learn more.