SEQ Land Prices Hit Record, Defying Rate Hikes as Supply Crunch Bites

The 1.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter uptick added $9000 to median block values, taking annual regional growth to 13.2 per cent—a $64,100 gain over 12 months.

“We have seen a significant reduction in inquiries and buyer activity as higher interest rates put further pressure on household budgets and borrowing capacity, but that weakness is yet to translate into a meaningful correction in land prices,” Oliver Hume chief economist Matt Bell said.

“Buyers are becoming more cautious and taking longer to make purchasing decisions, but prices are still rising across most of South-East Queensland.”

This price escalation unfolded even as September quarter sales volumes fell 5.6 per cent to 1055 transactions, sitting nearly 25 per cent below average levels recorded across 2024 and 2025.

The widening gap between dwindling transaction velocity and record land values reflects a severe structural supply pipeline bottleneck, Bell said.

“The underlying shortage of available land continues to support prices, even as demand softens,” he said.

“There is simply not enough supply coming to market to create meaningful downward pressure on prices.”

Median lot prices for SEQ, Sept quarter 2026

▲ Source: Oliver Hume Research

Market performance across key local government corridors was sharply bifurcated between premium coastal infill and high-volume western growth belts.

The Gold Coast staged the quarter’s most dramatic leap, surging 11.4 per cent or $93,000 to a median of $910,000—a 25.6 per cent annual expansion.

In the major growth corridors, Logan reclaimed its status as SEQ’s highest selling market, with transaction volumes jumping 33 per cent quarter-on-quarter while median prices gained 3.1 per cent to $497,000.

Ipswich posted the strongest annual gains among key growth corridors, climbing 23.5 per cent year-on-year to $542,000, while Moreton Bay lifted 2.8 per cent in the quarter to $555,000.

“These are substantial increases in markets that have traditionally offered some of the most affordable opportunities for new homebuyers,” Bell said.

But he added: “Higher borrowing costs, ongoing affordability pressures and some uncertainty around the future tax treatment of investment properties are weighing on buyer confidence.

“The gap between weakening demand and continued price growth is becoming increasingly apparent."

Quarterly median pullbacks in Brisbane ($990,00, down 21.1 per cent) and Redlands ($719,000, down 4.3 per cent)—albeit still remaining significantly above their levels of 12 months ago—reflected thinning trading volumes and changing product mix.

Interestingly, the regional median lot size expanded from 399sq m to 416sq m, driving a 2.5 per cent reduction in price per square metre.

▲ Oliver Hume Queensland general manager Dan Ross: Weaker demand will eventually place downward pressure on the rate of growth.

Looking ahead, Oliver Hume Queensland general manager Dan Ross said it was likely price growth would taper over coming quarters as monetary tightening bites deeper, though supply constraints will keep floor prices firm.

“While the structural shortage of residential land continues to support prices, weaker demand will eventually place downward pressure on the rate of growth,” he said.

“We expect price growth to moderate as the full impact of higher interest rates flows through the market.

“However, without a meaningful increase in the supply of development-ready land, South-East Queensland will continue to face significant housing affordability challenges.”