The Urban Developer
AdvertiseEventsWebinarsUrbanity
Industry Excellence
Urban Leader
Sign In
Membership
Latest
Menu
Location
Sector
Category
Content
Type
Newsletters
UPCOMING EVENT - INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS SUMMIT 16 OCTOBER, SYDNEY
INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS SUMMIT - TICKETS NOW ON SALE
LEARN MOREDETAILS
TheUrbanDeveloper
Follow
About
About Us
Membership
Awards
Events
Webinars
Listings
Resources
Terms & Conditions
Commenting Policy
Privacy Policy
Republishing Guidelines
Editorial Charter
Complaints Handling Policy
Contact
General Enquiries
Advertise
Contribution Enquiry
Project Submission
Membership Enquiry
Newsletter
Stay up to date and with the latest news, projects, deals and features.
Subscribe
ADVERTISEMENT
SHARE
94
print
Print
OtherAna NarvaezWed 29 May 19

Housing Downturn Is Nearing End, 3pc Left to Fall

dbaf24f4-144a-4b08-8fbd-08e5808a9ce9

With cash rate cuts well and truly priced in and a widely-reported improvement in sentiment, Australia’s housing market is looking like it may bottom out earlier than expected.

While a quick return to boom-time conditions is unlikely, there are tentative signs the slump is abating.

Macroeconomic research group Capital Economics has forecast that the housing downturn may soon come to an end.

The combination of “more supportive” policy settings, curtailed development supply and indicators such as improving auction clearance rates are consistent with improving house prices.

“We now think that house prices will fall by only 3 per cent from current levels [or] 13 per cent from their peak,” Capital Economics senior economist Marcel Thieliant said.

“If the RBA keeps cutting interest rates, buying a house will soon be the cheapest since the global financial crisis across the country.”

The magnitude of house prices falls is also a factor — the current housing downturn is larger than the previous nine — which means that house prices aren’t as overvalued and affordability has improved.

“Across the country, houses are broadly fairly valued,” Thieliant said.

“They are overvalued by around 10 to 15 per cent in Sydney and Melbourne but may be a little undervalued in Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide.

“The sharp fall in prices in recent years has made houses more affordable.”

While tighter lending conditions and subdued wages growth may restrain prices from rebounding too quickly, Capital Economics is forecasting house prices to rise by 3 per cent from their trough by the end of 2020 and another 5 per cent in 2021.

“New housing supply has dried up and the regulatory authority has indicated that it will loosen lending restrictions.

“Housing supply will soon no longer exceed demand. By the end of this year, new housing supply may fall below 45,000 per quarter.

That would be equivalent to 190,000 homes built per annum — broadly in line with demand.

ResidentialAustraliaFinancePolicyReal EstateSector
AUTHOR
Ana Narvaez
The Urban Developer - Editorial Director
More articles by this author
ADVERTISEMENT
TOP STORIES
Korean coliving hero
Exclusive

Disconnection by Design: Why ‘Untech’ is the Next Big Amenity

Clare Burnett
5 Min
Global Shifts Redraw the Map for Australia’s Office Market
Exclusive

Office Eyes Slowdown as New Stock Supply Becomes a Trickle

Vanessa Croll
7 Min
Salta MD Sam Tarascio
Exclusive

Why Salta Won’t Break Ground on $400m Pipeline

Leon Della Bosca
7 Min
Exclusive

Precinct Proposals Bloom as Brisbane Middle-Ring Sheds its Past

Phil Bartsch
8 Min
Exclusive

Newest Land Lease Player Plots Sector Shake-Up

Taryn Paris
5 Min
View All >
Development

Finalists Announced for The Urban Developer’s Urban Leader Awards 2025​

David Di Marco
Placemaking

Arup to Lead Brisbane Games Victoria Park Masterplan

Lindsay Saunders
Kokoda Teneriffe Banks HERO
Development

Kokoda Settles Teneriffe Banks as Melb Project Completes

Leon Della Bosca
The developer also finishes its largest Victorian project to date and doubles down on a new inner-city Melbourne site…
LATEST
Development

Finalists Announced for The Urban Developer’s Urban Leader Awards 2025​

David Di Marco
9 Min
Placemaking

Arup to Lead Brisbane Games Victoria Park Masterplan

Lindsay Saunders
3 Min
Kokoda Teneriffe Banks HERO
Development

Kokoda Settles Teneriffe Banks as Melb Project Completes

Leon Della Bosca
3 Min
Shayher 309 North Quay DA hero
Development

Twin-Tower ‘Gateway’ Revealed for Brisbane Renewal Precinct

Phil Bartsch
3 Min
View All >
ADVERTISEMENT
Article originally posted at: https://www.theurbandeveloper.com/articles/house-prices-will-fall-only-3pc-from-current-levels