The Big Rethink: Developers Future-Proof for Next Cycle
Australia’s developers are future-proofing for the next cycle—layering technology, diversification and sustainability over the old feasibility playbook.
At a Sydney roundtable hosted by alternative lender Centuria Bass—and led by The Urban Developer chief executive Adam Di Marco—several leading residential developers said the post-pandemic market had sharpened their appetite for innovation.
They also stressed discipline.
Centuria Bass managing director David Stone said the developer-builder model—once viewed cautiously by banks—was now seen as an advantage, particularly in Western Sydney where strong first-home buyer demand and ongoing supply needs rewarded established delivery capability.
“A decade ago, the concept of developer-builder was one the banks didn’t want to support,” Stone said.
“Now we see aligned goals as a positive ... but construction costs make it a challenge to get feasibilities to stack up.”
Across the table, innovation now runs beyond structure and into process.
Participants spoke about using AI to test feasibility, refine designs and track buyer interest more quickly, shortening feedback loops and reducing launch risk.
Developers highlighted real-world uses, including AI to forecast demand, software to test design options against planning rules and systems to identify stronger buyer leads, helping improve sales without growing headcount.
The conversation even ventured into the virtual when Wayne Sun, founder of SPG shared: “My son sold land in the metaverse during lockdown.”
The story drew laughs but underscored a deeper shift—the future of property development is already moving into digital space, where virtual ownership and real-world value are beginning to converge.
Diversification came through clearly.
Centuria Bass co-head of origination Charlie Robertson said from a lender’s view, the builder market at the small-to-mid end remained thin but cleaner than a year ago.
“There’s now a new generation of builders, so finding people with track records and good trade backing has been a challenge,” Robertson said.
“On our existing book, things have cleaned up a lot over the last 12-18 months.”
Sales remained the biggest pressure point, though some areas were still moving.
Urban Property Group chief executive Mark Elias said the firm was seeing outsized demand where the house-to-apartment price gap had blown out, with some councils still slowing outcomes despite state policy.
“Recent planning reforms, together with a strengthening economic outlook, are driving meaningful progress across the sector,” Elias said.
“We’re seeing greater alignment and support for new housing initiatives from both state and local governments, which is enabling us to accelerate key projects. While challenges persist, it’s clear that policy and market forces are beginning to move in the right direction.”
Market contrast across states was stark.
Abadeen founder Justin Brown warned pricing in blue-chip LMR pockets had run ahead of reality, saying the company would steer away from these zones to focus on less crowded catchments without the policy attention.
Metro Property Development chief executive Luke Hartman said innovation had helped claw back delivery timelines even as costs stayed elevated.
“You’re actually now building at the same rate—not the same price, but the same program—as pre-Covid,” Hartman said.
“That has been a massive shift ... the time has come back, but the cost is 40 per cent more than it was pre-Covid.”
He said the focus had shifted from speed to sustainability and smarter design.
“Developers are learning to build better, not just faster,” he said, adding technology, tighter procurement and stronger builder partnerships were now essential to holding margins.
Wayne Sun argued Australia had underestimated the shift to apartments and medium density—and the time needed for prices and supply chains to recalibrate.
“We’ve been so relaxed” and hadn’t realised that the next generation was going to live in apartments, he said.
“Planning in Victoria is much easier and more certain ... but the bigger challenge will be financing cost and build cost.”
He said developers ultimately had to pass rising costs on to buyers through higher prices because there was nowhere else for those costs to go.
He added suppliers from South-East Asia and China were re-entering Australia, an encouraging sign for logistics, cost and after-sales service.
Policy and capital rounded out the discussion.
Centuria Bass chief executive David Giffin said global investors still favoured Australian real estate credit, with risk anchored more in geopolitics than in local fundamentals.
“You could solve the affordability issue very easily with some simple policy changes, but no government is going to take up that challenge,” Giffin said.
“For the moment you’re going to see global investors looking for places to put their money and Australia is very attractive ... there’s going to be no shortage of capital for developers who want to borrow.”
The next phase is not only about getting projects to stack.
It’s about building businesses—and supply chains—resilient enough to ride the cycle.
The Urban Developer is proud to partner with Centuria Bass to deliver this article to you. In doing so, we can continue to publish our daily news, information, insights and opinion to you, our valued readers.
Repairing the Flow: Victoria’s Big Fix for Construction Payments
Sydney’s Next Big Cemetery Could Redraw Aerotropolis Boundary
Rockhampton Rises as Developers Bet Big on Regional Residential Growth
Queuing Out the Door: Co-Living Comes of Age
