Playing the Long Game: Developing for Property’s Most Resilient Sector

A couple aged in their early sixties stand in a display suite studying floor plans of a luxury apartment development. They might not fit the image of property’s most coveted market, but these prospective buyers represent what has become its most resilient demographic: downsizers. Developers who’ve mastered attracting these buyers are thriving despite challenging market conditions. Two Melbourne specialists, Lowe Living and Carpe Group, have built successful businesses by understanding this demographic’s nuanced needs. “Our primary demographic is downsizers,” Lowe Living co-founder Tim Lowe tells The Urban Developer . “[For] most of our buyers, it’s probably their last home. They’ll literally live in these houses for 20 years.” This insight shapes Lowe’s development philosophy, transforming each project from a property transaction into a long-term commitment to clients’ well-being as they age. It drives his approach to future-proofing designs with accessible bathrooms and thoughtful spatial planning, an emphasis on enduring build quality, and extensive post-settlement care. “When you understand that you’re building someone’s final home,” Lowe says, “it fundamentally changes how you approach every decision—from the width of a doorway to how quickly you respond to maintenance requests.” ▲ Lowe Living co-founders Emma Lowe and Tim Lowe. A Retirement Living Council (RLC) report reveals Australia faces a “triple threat of crises: a rapidly ageing population, chronic housing supply deficit, and struggling health and aged care systems”. It says that reforms to government policies could potentially release more than 59,000 homes nationwide and encourage an additional 94,000 seniors to access purpose-built accommodation. Around 73 per cent of NSW’s over-75 population—approximately 491,000 people—live in ‘oversized’ homes no longer suited to their needs. CoreLogic estimates approximately a third of property transactions in 2024 were conducted without a mortgage—many by downsizers leveraging substantial equity from previous homes. For Carpe Group co-director Stuart Kacir, this spells opportunity. When launching his business in 2017, “we probably underestimated the downsizer market initially”, he tells The Urban Developer . “Now our business is really just purely selling to downsizers. “Most of them are selling $3 million–$4 million homes typically, but they’re not getting a lot of change from that. They’re almost doing a complete swap for their current home.” This demographic is proving resilient despite economic headwinds, providing developers such as Lowe and Kacir with a stable market segment when others face affordability constraints. Both have discovered that capturing this market involves more than building smaller homes. It requires sophisticated understanding of downsizers’ needs and decision-making processes. It starts with location—the non-negotiable foundation of success. “Location’s everything,” Kacir says. “Unless you’ve got the best location, you’ll never get the sales.” Lowe agrees. “Main roads, rail, those sorts of things are not great if you’re trying to sell to downsizers.” The ideal location provides peace while offering walkable access to essential amenities, he says. ▲ Carpe Group co-directors Tim Campbell and Stuart Kacir. The typical downsizer spans ages 55 to 80, asset-rich and selling multi-million-dollar homes. Many are motivated by necessity rather than lifestyle choice. “A lot of them have one partner with a health condition that’s likely to worsen,” Kacir says. “So the big house just won’t do.” Attention to detail is crucial, both developers say. Carpe Group uses a 20-page document that briefs architects on specific requirements. “We brief architects on all things we want to see—robe dimensions, bedroom dimensions, kitchens, islands, tech,” Kacir says. “If you don’t get location and price point right, you’re struggling from the start. We spend a lot of time on floor plans—with probably 15 to 16 iterations before signing off.” Lowe similarly applies rigorous design standards, particularly for accessibility. &ldquo;All our showers generally offer at least 70 per cent of the building with walk-in showers with no threshold,&rdquo; Lowe says. &ldquo;--> Showers without thresholds, double basins, good-sized toilets—“we consciously consider our biodemographic when it comes to architectural choice.” Both also find detailed floor plans essential for buyer confidence, and a commitment to quality sets downsizer projects up for success. “On our plans, we provide a lot of detail. We don’t shy away from telling people where power points, data points, robe types, awning windows, sliding door directions will be,” Kacir says. “We don’t substitute fixtures and finishes. When preparing contracts, we specifically name premium brands and these exact specifications are locked into our legal documentation.” Delete Display suites form a crucial marketing strategy. “We spend a lot on display suites,” Kacir says. “Without that, downsizers won’t feel confident on what they’re buying.” The pre-sales approach requires patience and personalisation. “People, particularly downsizers, have become more conservative in approaching off-plan purchases,” Lowe says. This cautious decision-making has lengthened considerably, with Kacir noting his company typically conducts three to four meetings with prospects before securing a purchase. “These buyers take time,” Lowe says. “They do due diligence on contract review. They engage representatives. They invest a lot of time understanding what they’re purchasing.” Customisation plays a crucial role in closing sales. On Carpe’s Walton project at Kew, “there were 450 buyer changes across 26 sales”, Kacir says. A controlled approach to modifications through predetermined lists of possible changes is also used by both firms. “We have a list of three or four pages of buyer changes we can deliver without wholesale redesign,” Kacir says. Common requests include ceiling fans, motorised blinds, appliance upgrades, and robe reconfigurations. By anticipating these and establishing clear parameters upfront, developers can satisfy downsizers’ desire for personalisation while maintaining project timelines. Building trust through consistency and quality has become central to both companies’ strategies. “Vertical integration is a big part of our business,” Lowe says. “Our sales team and client services team have direct access to the delivery team.” His company maintains a dedicated maintenance team of four full-time staff to address post-handover issues promptly. “Everyone hates maintenance issues, but we work to close them out quickly. I need that buyer to refer me to others. And they’ll only do that if they’re super impressed with the service.” Delete Both developers acknowledge the price sensitivity of downsizers who may be asset-rich but cash-poor, influencing how they approach communal spaces and amenities. The RLC report supports these insights, noting that many downsizers are deterred by financial barriers, making pricing transparency and ongoing cost management crucial considerations. “Amenity’s becoming more important,” Lowe says. “They want spaces to work on wellness, improve health and well-being” but “they must be carefully balanced against ongoing costs”. Kacir agrees, saying “fees are a big thing for these buyers and not wanting to have a $10,000-15,000 per year maintenance cost”. Lowe’s solution involves creating “really flexible spaces, large in scale, low maintenance” with specific downsizer needs in mind. Both developers say most downsizers prefer private living spaces over elaborate common facilities, anyway, having come from standalone homes where they entertained within their own space. As Australia’s population ages and housing affordability remains a challenge, the downsizer market presents a rare intersection of growing demand, resilient capital and social purpose. The formula for success is demanding and detail-oriented, but as both Lowe and Kacir know, the rewards are substantial: consistent sales, premium pricing, and a reputation that converts into enduring competitive advantage. In a property market defined by uncertainty, the downsizer demographic offers that most valuable commodity: predictability.

Playing the Long Game: Developing for Property’s Most Resilient Sector

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