Concern Mounts as new SEQ Homes Lag Population Surge

The gap between housing supply and demand is widening across south-east Queensland with new data raising concerns about the region’s capacity to accommodate its forecast population growth.  

Research by RPM Group Queensland showed that Logan, south of Brisbane, would need to produce 4330 residential lots annually—or about 83 lots a week—to keep up with rising demand.

However, the data indicated that last year there were only 1800 lots registered, revealing a significant shortfall in meeting the accommodation needs of the growing population.

Concerns recently have been raised by several south-east Queensland councils over the state government’s draft SEQ Regional Plan, which is aimed at providing 900,000 new homes to cater for forecast population growth of an additional 2 million people across the region by 2046.

Logan and the Moreton Bay region, north of Brisbane, are expected to bear the brunt of south-east Queensland’s growing pains.

It is estimated Moreton Bay will need almost 100 new homes a week to cope with the population projections, which indicate it will be home to more than 800,000 people by 2046—an increase of 300,000 new residents.

Redlands and Noosa are among the other councils that have not only questioned the region’s capacity to meet the housing challenge ahead but also raised concerns about the need for infrastructure. 

According to RPM Group Queensland managing director Clinton Trezise, regions such as Logan not only needed increased supply but “the right type of supply”.

“With skyrocketing building costs making only high-end apartments feasible, much of the affordable housing will be left for greenfield developments to deliver,” he said.

“We need planning schemes for greater density land developments to suit a wider range of buyers and budgets to manage affordability.”

▲ The Logan and Moreton Bay regions are expected to bear the brunt of south-east Queensland’s growing pains.

RPM’s research showed Logan’s average new build cost grew 22 per cent to $337,672 in the 2022-23 financial year but it remained the city with the lowest average build cost in Queensland’s south-east corner.

Greenfield land prices in south-east Queensland continued to climb in the year to June 2023. The median settled land price surged to $340,000, marking a significant 12 per cent increase.

However, land prices in Logan were up just 3 per cent to $295,000—with prices in the outer areas of Lockyer Valley, Scenic Rim, Somerset and Toowoomba the only cities with a lower average land price.

“This data represents a significant advantage and opportunity for Logan, a city that is centrally located with ample land supply, to meet the needs of a growing population in the state’s southeast corner,” Trezise said.

“Logan benefits from an 85 per cent dominance of detached housing, which provides the lowest cost development options amid the current housing crisis.”

The RPM research also showed in the same 12-month period there had been a net migration increase of 7715 new residents into the city—more than half coming from Brisbane and the Gold Coast, both of which are experiencing affordability issues.

According to the data, Logan has 25 active residential estates comprising more than 40,000 lots, with 29,300 lots remaining for sale.