[+] Flood Plan Rethink Leaves Developers Fuming

What is the probability of pulling a crocodile half the length of a school bus from the Logan River? At a guess, pretty low. The waterway in the Brisbane-Gold Coast growth corridor is hundreds of kilometres south of where the reptiles typically lurk in Queensland’s north. But that’s exactly what happened back in 1905. Nevertheless, the chance of it occurring again was clearly deemed not significant enough to prevent settlers populating the river’s muddy banks and surrounds. In the ensuing years, Logan has evolved into one of the largest and fastest growing regional cities in Australia with a population expected to reach 553,000 by 2041. But what the discovery of the 3.83m-long saurian—rumoured to have been an exotic Christmas gift that escaped—did prove is that low-probability risks can’t be ignored. And therein, it seems, lies the thinking behind the Logan City Council’s contentious approach to a more significant natural hazard for the rapidly expanding city of two rivers. Flooding. With the Logan and Albert rivers as well as almost 90 creeks meandering across the city, it has inevitably had its fair share of extreme inundation. And in the wake of a weather “bomb” that dumped up to 880mm of rain into the local waterways and caused major flooding in late February 2022, updated risk-based flood mapping has been undertaken by the council. ▲ The crocodile found in the Logan River in 1905. Image: State Library of Queensland The new hydrological modelling has identified increases in flood levels of between 1.5m to 2m in some key catchments as part of a rolling flood studies review program. It supersedes previous binary mapping—either a property was wet or dry—based on a 1 per cent, or one-in-100, chance of a flooding evet happening in any year. Instead, the new risk-based approach identifies a range of risk categories from very low, low, moderate to high, guided by state government criteria that also considers factors such as climate change, isolation and flood-free access. As a result, thousands of properties never impacted by flood water reportedly have been suddenly declared at risk. In October last year, the council approved a Temporary Local Planning Instrument (TLPI) giving immediate effect to its new flood mapping and policy “to reduce flood risk and build community resilience” before it delivers the city’s new planning scheme in late 2025. The move changed the city’s development playing field overnight, sterilising large tracts of previously developable land. All the while as south-east Queensland grapples with worsening housing supply issues and significant population growth. Not surprisingly, the council—albeit recognising the development industry as the city’s third largest employer and “crucial” to the delivery of many greenfield and infill residential projects—has drawn fire from across the sector. Its new flood mapping framework has been heavily criticised as “completely impractical” and “stifling” from an industry perspective. ▲ An aerial image of flooding at Logan during the 2022 weather event that affected much of the east coast. More than 280 homes were inundated. “There’s been lots of increases in flood levels over the years as councils get better information,” Gold Coast-based town planner David Ransom says. “But this is unprecedented.” By comparison, he says, when the Gold Coast City Council adopted its updated flood levels in 2018 the highest increase was 75cm at Palm Beach in the city’s south. According to Ransom, who heads Zone Planning Group, a development application by one of his clients that had been in the system for 15 months was refused after the site’s flood level was suddenly lifted by 1.6m and it was no longer deemed to have flood-free access. “That’s a lot, 1.6m. .. I’ve never seen anything like that before,” he says. “It’s a big local government area, there’s still flood-free land to develop but the big question is how much has been wiped out.” In some cases, he says, projects that had already built to the previous flood levels and were in the process of getting their plans sealed and, under the new flood mapping model, the council would not sign-off on the titles. “It’s not good for the city,” Ransom says. “Because who’d want to do business with Logan again after that … particularly in the catchments they haven’t yet modelled. Why would you go and buy land there knowing that they’ve lifted the flood level by 1.6m over here? You just wouldn’t touch that land at all.” It is also understood a major mixed-use masterplan project in the planning stages has been left in limbo as a result of the changes. “The fact of the matter is it does have quite far-reaching implications on greenfield development and the development footprint,” an industry source said. Noting the curiously higher mapped flood levels on the northern side of the Logan River—the great watery divide between Logan and the Gold Coast to its south—they added: “Some of the parameters the council has adopted are probably questionable … how can you possibly have a 1m level difference along the same stretch of the same river. “At the same time, I don’t think anybody has thought of about whether there is a way of working with this new flood mapping to find alternative solutions to not quarantine so much land.” ▲ Logan, 24km south of the Brisbane CBD. The first leases of land in the Logan area were issued from 1849. Logan mayor Jon Raven concedes the TLPI is a blunt instrument and before being elected to lead the council in March he called for its review. “We’re going through and doing that now to make it a bit more practical and determine what uses are acceptable,” he says. “When you introduce a TLPI it takes effect straight away. You don’t do community consultations, that’s not part of it, and you also don’t get to see how it’s going to be implemented until it is being implemented. So, tweaks are being done to improve it.” One such tweak being looked at relates to a large number of properties mapped as having a one in 2000 annual chance of getting flooded being deemed of moderate risk under the new flood modelling. “That’s not what I would call a moderate risk … which is part of what the review is about,” Raven says. “The review is to make sure that the way the TLPI is implemented is fair.” But he also made it clear the council has a duty of care to its ratepayers and future residents and will not bow to pressure from developers over its updated flood mapping. “We just can’t let people prioritise housing or profits over life and safety. “So, the proposition from the industry that says ‘Hey, we had an approval and we want you to let us build in a floodplain, putting people’s property and lives at risk in the future’—well, the answer is no, we’re not going to do that because that would be negligent.” Throwing down the gauntlet to developers who doubt the peer-reviewed data surrounding the city’s new flood mapping, he said: “If a developer really believes it’s safe to build … they can take us to court. “And if the court determines that it’s safe to build there, then that’s a decision for the court. I just don’t think it’s right for councillors or the development assessment team to be saying ‘I’m comfortable to put people in harm’s way so they can build a greenfield house in a floodplain’...we would be culpable.” He adds: “Nobody who was outside the floodplain wants to be in it. “Especially where there’s no living memory of a flood being there. But it’s not like ‘hey, no one can remember it, so therefore it must be dry’. That’s not how it works. It’s based on the data and evidence.” And Raven says: “There are plenty of other places to build in the city that aren’t in floodplains, plenty of places to build infill. “It’s not the cheapest model but if it’s really about building housing, then infill development is the best kind of development to get maximum yield on the smallest imprint of land, as close to existing infrastructure and public transport as possible.” Greenfield developer Kent Leicester’s KDL Property Group has three sites under construction. He says there simply needs to be more transparency on the new flood modelling. “We’re not saying it’s wrong and we certainly don’t want to be risking the welfare of any residents or anything like that,” he says. “But there just needs to be a little bit more consultation and more transparency on the modelling and how they arrived at this new mapping. “Unfortunately, it feels like we’ve had these one-in-100-year events every couple of years for a while there…so there may be some logic to it all. “But it’s really disheartening for landowners when these changes just almost come in overnight. “They’re wholesale changes which impact property values and the ability of land to be developed in the future, which is huge because it’s reducing the supply of developable land at a time when we need to, and we’re trying to do everything we can, to increase supply of land.” Raven says Logan is the fastest growing city in Queensland and is already doing its “fair share” in regard to increasing housing supply in the region. “As far as detached greenfield dwelling stock goes, I think we’re meeting like 80 per cent of the region’s stock. So we’re doing the heavy lifting when it comes to detached dwellings. “And, because of that, we’ve got a responsibility to make sure that we don’t put people in harm’s way, we don’t let them build in floodplains. “Because if we do, then in 40 years, when people are losing their lives or their properties, and there’s all this heartache about insurance skyrocketing out of proportion…people are going to go ‘why did this council that knew that these properties could flood let people build there?’.” You are currently experiencing The Urban Developer Plus (TUD+), our premium membership for property professionals. Click here to learn more.

[+] Flood Plan Rethink Leaves Developers Fuming

Want to read more?

‘We are the Solution’: Land Lease Shake-Up Stirs into Life

Disconnection by Design: Why ‘Untech’ is the Next Big Amenity

Office Eyes Slowdown as New Stock Supply Becomes a Trickle

Why Salta Won’t Break Ground on $400m Pipeline

Precinct Proposals Bloom as Brisbane Middle-Ring Sheds its Past

[+] Flood Plan Rethink Leaves Developers Fuming

Want to read more?

‘We are the Solution’: Land Lease Shake-Up Stirs into Life

Disconnection by Design: Why ‘Untech’ is the Next Big Amenity

Office Eyes Slowdown as New Stock Supply Becomes a Trickle

Why Salta Won’t Break Ground on $400m Pipeline

Precinct Proposals Bloom as Brisbane Middle-Ring Sheds its Past

‘We are the Solution’: Land Lease Shake-Up Stirs into Life

Court Freezes Assets as $160m Property Scheme Unravels

Bipartisan NSW Planning Reform a Welcome Surprise

‘We are the Solution’: Land Lease Shake-Up Stirs into Life

Court Freezes Assets as $160m Property Scheme Unravels

Bipartisan NSW Planning Reform a Welcome Surprise

Centennial’s Paul Ford: From Vision to Industrial Vanguard