The Urban Developer
AdvertiseEventsWebinarsUrbanity
Industry Excellence
Urban Leader
Sign In
Membership
Latest
Menu
Location
Sector
Category
Content
Type
Newsletters
UPCOMING EVENT - LAND LEASE DEVELOPMENT SUMMIT 10 DAYS TO GO
10 DAYS TO GO - LAND LEASE DEVELOPMENT SUMMIT
REGISTER NOWREGISTER
TheUrbanDeveloper
Follow
About
About Us
Membership
Awards
Events
Webinars
Listings
Resources
Terms & Conditions
Commenting Policy
Privacy Policy
Republishing Guidelines
Editorial Charter
Complaints Handling Policy
Contact
General Enquiries
Advertise
Contribution Enquiry
Project Submission
Membership Enquiry
Newsletter
Stay up to date and with the latest news, projects, deals and features.
Subscribe
ADVERTISEMENT
SHARE
print
Print
OtherStaff WriterSun 24 Aug 14

Inner Sydney Apartment Market Boom To Continue

S

Leading industry analyst and economic forecaster, BIS Shrapnel says Sydney’s inner city apartment market boom is expected to continue over the next couple of years on the back of buoyant investor demand, underpinned by low vacancy rates, the expectation of further price growth and low interest rates.

BIS Shrapnel said that high levels of off-the-plan sales in the next year to two years will continue and drive further rises in new inner Sydney apartment completions to an historic peak by 2017.

However, this sustained level of additional stock has the potential to tip the inner Sydney apartment market into oversupply.

BIS Shrapnel estimated around 5,800 apartments in inner Sydney are currently under construction with further projects currently marketing, or likely to go ahead, expected to result in 11,500 new apartments being completed over the next three years.

Senior Manager and report author Angie Zigomanis

said that investor demand for inner Sydney apartments was initially driven by attractive yields in a low interest rate environment, but is continuing to be encouraged by the expectation of further capital gains.

 
“To some extent, the inner Sydney apartment market
is playing ‘catch up’ after almost a decade of weak
demand for new apartments and limited price growth”


 “In the absence of any negative news in relation to the Sydney residential market, investor demand is likely to remain buoyant,” said Mr Zigomanis.

“Vacancy rates will remain relatively tight in the short term until the upturn in new construction translates to completions, while low interest rates and low or volatile returns for other investment classes are expected to continue to encourage investors into residential property.”

Demand from overseas investors is also expected to remain strong for now, with overseas buyers attracted by the stable economic and political environment of Australia, as well as the transparent property market.

Measures to cool the property markets in their home countries, such as in China or Singapore, by restricting local investment are also encouraging this outflow of funds.

“To some extent, the inner Sydney apartment market is playing ‘catch up’ after almost a decade of weak demand for new apartments and limited price growth,” said Mr Zigomanis.

“However, the current surge in off-the-plan demand is likely to see the market get ahead of itself again as pre-sold new apartment projects commence and progressively work their way through to completion.”

While the anticipated peak of 4,500 apartment completions by 2016/2017 is expected to be on par with the previous 1999/2000 peak, the average supply forecast of just over 3,800 apartments per year will be above any previous three-year period.

Owner occupier demand is also likely to grow, with rising inner and middle ring Sydney house prices encouraging some tenants to instead upgrade to a larger apartment in inner Sydney as an owner occupier, while also encouraging empty nesters and retirees to more easily trade down from their existing house to an apartment.

“Landlords of newly-completed apartments will have to be more competitive to attract tenants over existing stock, while owners of older apartments may have to discount to attract tenants from neighbouring suburbs,” said Mr Zigomanis.

“The decline in rental returns and increase in mortgage servicing costs will reduce the amount the purchasers will be willing to pay for an apartment and many owners who bought at, or close to, the top of the market could experience losses if they sold into the downturn.”

Mr Zigomanis said that the forecast downturn from 2016/2017 will be relatively shallow, with vacancy rates not expected to reach the levels of the mid-2000s downturn following the last apartment market boom. Therefore, any underlying excess supply should be mopped up relatively quickly, with an underlying deficiency re-emerging towards the end of the decade to underpin the next upturn in the cycle.

However, demand in the short term for inner Sydney apartments is expected to remain buoyant, with low vacancy rates and low interest rates helping to fuel the market and drive median price growth averaging around six per cent per annum over 2014/2015 and 2015/2016.

This level of growth is expected to be ahead of the magnitude of decline in prices anticipated over the following two years, with the decline clawed back over the subsequent years as the market tightens again.

As a result, total price growth of around 21 per cent is forecast through to 2021.

ResidentialAustraliado not useSector
AUTHOR
Staff Writer
"TheUrbanDeveloper.com is committed to delivering the latest news, reviews, opinions and insights into the best of urban development from Australia and around the world. "
More articles by this author
ADVERTISEMENT
TOP STORIES
Stockland bumps up its apartment pipeline in melbourne and sydney
Exclusive

Stockland Re-Enters Density in $5bn Apartment Play

Renee McKeown
4 Min
Woolloongabba Precinct Vulture St
Exclusive

Brisbane Developer in Cross River Rail Compensation Tussle

Clare Burnett
4 Min
The Mondrian Gold Coast hotel's food and beverage is driving profits
Exclusive

Touch, Taste, Theatre: What’s Driving Mondrian’s Success

Renee McKeown
6 Min
Fortis’ display suites are designed as brand environments first, with tactile details and curated design to build buyer confidence before project specifics.
Exclusive

Relevant or Redundant: Will Tech Kill Display Suites?

Vanessa Croll
7 Min
Exclusive

Missing Heart: Why The Gold Coast Needs a CBD

Phil Bartsch
7 Min
View All >
JQZ Parramatta EDM
Residential

JQZ Plots 10-Storey Addition to Parramatta ‘Auto Alley’ Plans

Clare Burnett
Development

Resimax, Oreana Strike $14m Deal for Eynesbury Village

Lindsay Saunders
Aerial view of Caboolture and Bruce highway to Brisbane with Bribie Island Road crossing, Queensland, Australia
Policy

Queensland’s $2bn Push Opens New Housing Front

Vanessa Croll
First projects named in a statewide plan to fast-track supply, including thousands of homes in a major growth region…
LATEST
JQZ Parramatta EDM
Residential

JQZ Plots 10-Storey Addition to Parramatta ‘Auto Alley’ Plans

Clare Burnett
3 Min
Development

Resimax, Oreana Strike $14m Deal for Eynesbury Village

Lindsay Saunders
3 Min
Aerial view of Caboolture and Bruce highway to Brisbane with Bribie Island Road crossing, Queensland, Australia
Policy

Queensland’s $2bn Push Opens New Housing Front

Vanessa Croll
2 Min
Stockland bumps up its apartment pipeline in melbourne and sydney
Exclusive

Stockland Re-Enters Density in $5bn Apartment Play

Renee McKeown
4 Min
View All >
ADVERTISEMENT
Article originally posted at: https://www.theurbandeveloper.com/articles/inner-sydney-apartment-market-boom-to-continue