Home Values Edge Up but States Record Mixed Bag

Home values have edged up again, marking the sixth straight monthly rise.

CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index rose 0.8 per cent in August, a slight acceleration from the 0.7 per cent increase in July, interrupting a two-month trend of slowing capital gains. 

Since bottoming in February, the national index is up 4.9 per cent, adding about $34,301 to the median home value.

The recovery trend remains broad-based, with every capital city except Hobart (-0.1 per cent) recording a rise in home values over the month.

Gains were led by a 1.5 per cent increase across Brisbane, followed by Sydney and Adelaide where home values were up 1.1 per cent.

CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless said the trend in housing values, although generally positive, was diverse.

“Sydney has led the recovery trend to date with a gain of 8.8 per cent since values found a floor in January this year. Brisbane has also posted a strong recovery with values up 6.2 per cent since bottoming out in February,” he said.

“At the other end of the scale, some other capital cities are better described as flat, with Hobart home values unchanged since stabilising in April, while values across the ACT have risen only mildly, up 1 per cent since a trough in April. 

“These are also the only two capital cities where advertised supply is tracking higher than a year ago, suggesting a rebalancing between buyers and sellers is a key factor contributing to the stability of values in these regions.”

Within the capital cities, it is generally house values rather than unit values that have showed a sharper recovery trend. 

At the combined capital cities level, house values are up 6.3 per cent since bottoming out in February, compared with a 4.9 per cent rise in unit values. 

The more significant rise in house values comes after a drop through the preceding downturn, where house values were down 10.7 per cent compared to a 6.5 per cent drop in unit values.

“Most cities are showing a larger rise in house values compared with units, however, Sydney stands out with the most significant difference through the recovery cycle to date, possibly due to the more substantial decline in house values which fell by 15 per cent through the recent downturn,” Lawless said.

Conditions across regional housing markets were mixed, with values down over the month across the non-capital city regions of NSW (-0.2 per cent) and Victoria (-0.6 per cent), rising firmly across regional Queensland (0.8 per cent) and SA (0.9 per cent), and holding relatively flat in regional WA (0.1 per cent) and Tasmania (0 per cent).

“With internal migration trends normalising across regional Australia, and less demand side pressures from net overseas migration than in capital cities, regional markets generally aren’t seeing the same level of recovery,” Lawless said.

“Historic migration data from the ABS shows that prior to the pandemic, regional Australia had only accounted for around 15 per cent of total net overseas migration.

“Housing values across the combined regional areas of Australia are up 1.6 per cent since a trough in February, compared with a larger 6 per cent rise in values across the combined capitals.”

Across Australia’s regional SA3 markets, areas of the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast comprised seven of the top 10 markets for the largest capital gain over the three months ending August.

“Coolangatta home values surged 6.2 per cent during the past three months, followed by the Sunshine Coast Hinterland (5.8 per cent) and Gold Coast North (5.6 per cent). Strong internal migration into these areas is likely to be a key factor supporting housing demand and housing values in these areas,” Lawless said.