[+] Winners and Losers: Games Housing Legacy No Sure Bet

To be clear, the main game of the Olympics—or any mega event for that matter—is not housing. And certainly, in the case of Brisbane, hosting the 2032 Games is not about providing a solution to the city’s housing crisis. Not even under the remit of the International Olympic Committee’s “new norm” focus on sustainability and legacy. “The Games themselves are not designed directly to deliver housing,” says Paul Burton, an urban management and planning professor who heads Griffith University’s Cities Research Institute. “I mean, that’s not the purpose of the Games. It is just a bit of an incidental benefit from the athletes’ villages.” But if you plan and play it right, he says, the infrastructure works and placemaking for such events can be the catalyst for urban transformation that makes a big difference. The proof is in the post-Games pudding. In January, the Harumi Flag complex—the converted athletes’ village from the Covid-delayed Tokyo Olympics staged in 2021—started welcoming the first of an expected 12,000 residents to the 21 buildings, ranging from 14 to 18 storeys. Government-owned land on the 13.4ha site fronting Tokyo Bay was sold to developers at a discounted price under the proviso the village would be transformed into an apartment complex. And with the units, as a result, being offered at more affordable rates—on average about 30 per cent less per square metre than homes in surrounding areas—buyers have flocked to purchase apartments. Two further 50-storey residential towers are now under construction and by next year a total of 5642 apartments will have been added to the city's supply—for sale and rental. Eventually, that is expected to rise to 9777 apartments as well as 1637 other homes. ▲ Harumi Flag, the successful conversion of the athletes’ village from the 2021 Tokyo Games, began welcoming residents in January. In other host cities, there have been similar successful adaptive reuses of athletes’ villages, including for student housing and resorts. Some of them have since become trendy neighbourhoods. The 1992 Games were transformational for Barcelona, turning it into one of Spain's top tourist destinations. And after the 2012 London Olympics, the East Village athletes’ digs were converted into almost 4500 new homes along with restaurants, shops and schools. Closer to home, the $550-million athletes’ accommodation for the 2018 Gold Coast Commonwealth Games—comprising 18 buildings and 1252 units on a 29ha site at Southport—was successfully transitioned into Australia’s first large-scale build-to-rent community. But, as the saying goes, the best-laid plans of mice and men often also go awry. Notably, the $700-million Rio de Janeiro 2016 Olympic village was the biggest in Games history. Post-event, its 3604 units across 31 buildings were converted to luxury condominiums but only a few hundred were sold and the rest left shuttered and abandoned. As Burton quickly points out, given Queensland’s population growth and prevailing housing shortfall, there is little chance of that happening to its planned main athletes’ villages at Northshore Hamilton, Robina and Maroochydore. “Housing in Brisbane and south-east Queensland at the moment is not going to stand empty,” he says. “We’ve been behind the eight ball for 30 years on the housing front and it’ll take another 25 to 30 years of concerted effort to address it and solve it, so long as we agree on what we’re doing and stick with it.” And, therein, lies arguably the biggest challenge. “What will cause problems here is if the three levels of government and the other partners don’t get their act together and work together,” Burton says. ▲ Cities Research Institute director Paul Burton: Inter-government friction the biggest threat. Already, he says, such friction may have led to a potential “missed opportunity” in leveraging a significant housing legacy. Last week, Queensland premier Steven Miles and his cabinet rejected key recommendations from an independent review led by former Brisbane lord mayor Graham Quirk of the Games venue program. The review recommended the planned redevelopment of the Gabba stadium—with its estimated cost blowing out to as much as $3.4 billion—should be scrapped. Instead, the “best outcome” would be the construction of a new centrepiece, a 55,000-seat venue at Victoria Park in the city’s inner-north. As well, it advised the Gabba should be demolished and its site repurposed, citing the $1 billion-plus cost of keeping it operational until 2032 and beyond. But all of the above was dismissed by the state government. “Tarting up the Gabba won’t get rid of its problems,” Burton says. “It’s lipstick on a pig. “And actually you could put a lot of housing on that site—well-designed, well-located … and if you played it right, social and affordable housing or a good mix of that. “There’s an opportunity there for that whole Gabba precinct to be regenerated and connected better to South Bank and the CBD. You don’t have to have a stadium to do that.” PRD Real Estate chief economist and Olympic legacy committee member Diaswati Mardiasmo adds: “There is always a danger when it comes to these kinds of projects”. ▲ PRD chief economist Diaswati Mardiasmo: Bad planning could mean the Games make the housing crisis worse. “(That’s) just because of how many people are involved and also the level of planning that needs to go into it.” She says a PRD study had been undertaken into whether the Olympics and other mega events contributed to housing supply. “The answer is yes and no,” Mardiasmo says. “It really does depend on the planning and implementation and how that’s all managed. “If it’s not done well there is a real danger of exacerbating any undersupply. On the other hand, when it is done well it has been proven it can actually increase housing supply. “It’s really about having that implementation plan set and doing it as a matter of priority because, as we all know, these projects take a while to get up … and then, of course, we’ve also got construction challenges right now.” Mardiasmo says the Gabba was one of several locations identified throughout south-east Queensland as potential Olympics legacy housing precincts. According to the Elevate 2042 planning documents released late last year: “Wherever there are Games events, training camps, venues or precincts, there will be opportunities for renewal and placemaking; creating more places and precincts local people love and where they can connect and spend time together”. Mardiasmo says the impact of the State Government’s changes to the Olympic masterplan last week are yet to be determined by the legacy committee. “We’ve still got to figure out what that all means for Elevate 2042. We haven’t had a chance to meet and discuss that yet,” Mardiasmo says. “But this is all something that is of urgency because while 2032 may seem like it is still quite a while away it’s not in construction timeframes. “So, we definitely need to get on this implementation plan bedded down sooner rather than later.” ▲ REIQ chief executive Antonia Mercorella: Backflips dampen confidence . Real Estate Institute of Queensland chief executive Antonia Mercorella agrees. “One of the exciting things about hosting the Olympics is that there’s an opportunity to create the Olympic venues we need to deliver the Games successfully, but then post-Games there’s an opportunity to innovate and convert that into housing,” she says. However, with the countdown well under way, decisive action is needed “to minimise time and resources wasted on ideas that are later dumped”. “How many people have been buying around the Gabba or proposing housing developments in the area on the basis that it would be redeveloped as a key Olympic venue?” Mercorella says. “Backflips like this only dampen confidence and create negative sentiment, and with every day that passes with uncertainty, people begin to doubt our ability to deliver the Games. “Billions of dollars are spent on accelerating infrastructure to support the Games such as transport infrastructure and sporting venues. “The Games themselves are over in a flash, so we need to make sure that we’re maximising the benefit of that infrastructure post-Games. “If we can get it right we can enjoy an incredible legacy.” Griifith University’s Burton says a major key to unlocking that legacy, particularly in terms of housing supply, will be the transport infrastructure brought forward for the Games. “When that’s in place, that opens up areas for more intense development. That’s your bones that gives you good long-term structure where you can build around those transport nodes for the next 20 to 30 years and that’s a very positive legacy.” But he says with the world looking on—particularly since Melbourne pulled out of hosting the 2026 Commonwealth Games—the political gymnastics and “squabbling” needs to end. “You can’t just click your fingers and this will all be done. These are major projects that take time and the clock is ticking. “And this argument that until we’ve solved this particular problem we should spend nothing on anything else … well, that’s a nonsense. “Because we can address housing problems but they never go away. “So we’d never spend anything except on whatever is at the top of our list until it is solved. “And that may well make a big dent in the housing issue but the places we’ll be living in will be pretty horrible because there’ll no libraries to go to, no art galleries, no parks. “It’s like, who needs them in a housing crisis? … but it’s a bit of a dodgy argument. “So I think the biggest opportunity that the Games provides is to demonstrate that the three levels of government can work effectively together, put their differences to one side to do long-term strategic planning so that we can start making good things happen. “That would be by far the most significant legacy.” You are currently experiencing The Urban Developer Plus (TUD+), our premium membership for property professionals. 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[+] Winners and Losers: Games Housing Legacy No Sure Bet

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