“The world has entered a new era, evolving from an industrial into a knowledge-based society, and into a society that wants to live in harmony with nature.”  Minoru Mori, considered to be one of Japan’s most powerful and influential developers and one of the world’s richest men before his death in 2012, understood intimately the disadvantages of a decentralised, spread-out urban area and the environmental impacts of “urban sprawl”.   A decade on, development continues to occur on the fringes of cities globally as land is cleared and new suburbs are erected with often little thought to energy costs, adequate infrastructure, pollution, traffic, trees and open space. The increasing physical and environmental “footprints” of metropolitan areas have led to the destruction of wildlife habitat and to the fragmentation of remaining natural areas as well as declining community distinctiveness and cohesiveness.  However, cities such as Tokyo—where Mori’s most prominent developments stand—have attempted to address these issues, allowing higher density across much larger areas. It has led to many well-connected, medium-density areas and fewer high-density towers.  This more permissive approach in Japan has also allowed construction to keep up with supply and kept house prices firmly under control. In Australia, despite concerns about the environmental, health and economic costs of our city’s expanding footprints, unfettered urban sprawl has continued to accelerate in recent years growing at rates faster than many developed cities internationally. ▲ To combat this issue Sydney is creating mini-CBDs, which include Parramatta, Liverpool, Penrith, Chatswood, Epping, Castle Hill, Blacktown and Campbelltown. Sydney’s urban sprawl extends as far as 60km west to Oran Park, while thousands of homes are planned for Wilton, more than 80km south-west of the CBD. The city is already pursuing a “Three Cities” strategy with three major population centres. Melbourne is already huge, with low-density housing estates spreading out as much as 60km towards the city’s south and is expanding on its eastern and western borders. Low-density homebuilding accelerates According to the Urban Development Institute of Australia, unprecedented levels of demand for new greenfield land last year—supercharged by the HomeBuilder scheme—meant a record-breaking 76,000 lots were sold across the combined capital cities—an increase of 33 per cent over the previous year. Institute president Maxwell Shifman said the “frenetic performance” of the national greenfield sector had been a “critical component” of Australia’s strong economic performance through the pandemic. Institute modelling now anticipates a modest lift in the overall production of the combined capital city’s new residential supply to be delivered in 2022, to a total of 99,000. Sydney alone needs to build 726,000 dwellings, 42,000 a year, to keep up with population growth by 2031. A spokesperson for the NSW Department of Planning and Environment said all levels of government in the state would play an important role in increasing housing stock, to ensure the pipeline of new homes could be delivered long-term. “We are pulling all levers available to create diverse, affordable and resilient housing so we can provide homes for everyone.  “Potential land that can be used for new housing, including greenfield, brownfield, commercial and urban-infill, are all considered.”  ▲ Only 10 per cent of Australia is arable and much of that land is being swallowed up as state governments respond to the growing demand for affordable housing. Greater Cities Commission head of strategic planning Stephanie Barker told The Urban Developer the state government had tasked the commission to develop and deliver plans for the Six Cities Region. The plan extends to the Lower Hunter and Greater Newcastle City, the Central Coast City, the Illawarra-Shoalhaven City, the Western Parkland City, the Central River City and the Eastern Harbour City.  “Planning at a multi-city region level provides significant opportunities to address many of the issues posed by urban sprawl,” Barker said. “Globally, multi-city regions have emerged as a response to increased inflation, housing, cost of living and market saturation due to development constraints in high-demand central cities. “In NSW, we plan to align land use, transport, housing and infrastructure planning to respond to urban sprawl and other city planning challenges.” Preparing for the population Australia’s population is now hurtling towards 41 million people by 2060, according to research by the Productivity Commission cited in the National Outlook Report. Sydney and Melbourne each will be home to 8-9 million people and Brisbane and Perth 4-5 million a piece. In an attempt to alleviate pressure, the recent national housing accord struck by the Albanese government with states and territories will free up land and build a million homes by 2029, backed by capital from the $3.3 trillion superannuation sector. With net overseas migration set to return to pre-pandemic levels, the target of about 200,000 new homes a year is on par with what was achieved in the five years leading up to the closure of Australia’s border in early 2020. Over the next two years, before the planned increase from 2024, housing completions are expected to be slightly lower because of supply-chain constraints and skills shortages in the building industry. The question now is how and where those homes will be delivered as a growing chorus of industry experts urge for a cap on suburban sprawl and instead for planners and developers to be incentivised to build more sustainably concsious solutions. Brendan Coates of the Grattan Institute said building in our city’s “missing middle” could provide much-needed housing in established suburbs. “It is a myth that all new first-home buyers want a quarter-acre block. Many would prefer a townhouse, semi-detached dwelling, or apartment in an inner or middle suburb, rather than a house on the city fringe,” Coates says.  “Yet it remains clear Australian cities offer too little medium-density housing in their inner and middle rings.  “There is a tendency nowadays to normatively say that either urban infill or greenfield are good solutions for housing supply and affordability. You’re going to have both products as we continue to build for a growing population, but the balance of what we are delivering appears, to us, to be wrong. “There are several consequences that come from not allowing enough density in the middle ring suburbs of major cities. And those consequences are setting us up for some potentially pretty big long-term costs that aren’t being considered or factored into how cities are being developed at this moment in time.” ▲ Brendan Coates said the politics of land-use planning—what gets built and where—favour those who oppose change. Australian capital cities continue to be more sparsely populated than cities of similar size in other developed economies. In Sydney, there are 440 people per square kilometre while Melbourne has roughly 510 people per square kilometre. Comparatively, Tokyo has 6100 people per square kilometre. The missing middle remains so for a reason  “The politics of planning can be quite poisonous,” Coates says. “For urban sprawl to occur, strong institutional support for zoned and lateral urban planning is required.” And Coates is right. Plans to build medium-density blocks in inner-city areas are often met with stiff opposition from residents and local councillors who argue the proposals will alter neighbourhoods and overload roads, schools and other infrastructure. Planning schemes also generally limit opportunities to allow medium-density housing to be done well or in some circumstances be done at all. “There are many players in the land development market, especially for the urban infill in our major cities that now accounts for more than half of all new housing construction,” Coates says. “If developers are land banking on the urban fringe, that housing construction could be offset by more housing construction in infill areas, if land-use planning rules would permit it.     “It is why we don’t see as much housing being built in the more central and wealthier parts of cities like Sydney or Melbourne.  “It is politically challenging, but there needs to be incentives and rewards for the states and councils that are willing to push for change that allow more of that to happen in the inner and middle rings. “If you start to do that, then a number of the other more systemic problems will probably solve themselves and infrastructure revision will become cheaper for provisioning for a growing population.”  ▲ Missing middle: Several suburbs have become battlegrounds over medium-density developments that could alleviate urban sprawl. Michael Fotheringham of the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute agrees. “The stereotypical pattern that over the last couple of decades has been significant sprawl outside of the growth boundaries of each of the big cities and high density in the inner city or CBD,” he says.  “There’s an inefficiency to the way we approach urban sprawl and the costs and difficulties we are creating for people who eventually live on the extremes of our cities who are attempting to participate in education or the workforce. “And there’s also an environmental impact that is far from trivial. “We are increasingly consuming our farming land or the food bowls around us to put up ineffective housing. “The missing middle, which has been a weakness of urban planning and development, is indeed a viable solution. And we’re not necessarily talking about very high density, just medium density in the middle suburbs.  “What we’re starting to see in a number of our larger cities is evolving patterns where there will be some local areas or local government areas that are highly resistant and highly focused on retaining the care, character or the exclusiveness of an area and others that are much more open to increasing development. “And so we see pockets of greater density bubbling up and pockets of resistance too over time. Eventually, we need to be thinking in a more modern way and be more open to change and vertical living.” ▲ Michael Fotheringham said Sydney's "Three City" model would likely expand to 5-6 cities given growth rates and the unfettered approach to greenfield development. According to the Urban Taskforce, taller towers have been proven to provide the lowest carbon footprint per dwelling followed by mid-rise towers. High-rise buildings are the most sustainable in terms of the embedded carbon footprint associated with construction as well as the energy used in their operation over 20 years. Modern suburban dwellings are typically larger than their counterparts in cities, requiring more energy to heat them in the winter and cool them in the summer.  In contrast, city apartments not only are typically smaller but also are better able to retain these resources: heating and cooling have greater difficulty escaping because many apartment walls, ceilings, and floors are often shared with neighbouring units. Building in the middle rings does, however, come with its issues—in particular, that getting around the cities will become increasingly difficult, especially if better-paid knowledge jobs remain concentrated in city centres. Barker agrees that more could be done to build centrally with higher-density housing solutions made available in locations with existing infrastructure. “[In NSW] the commission is investigating how to deliver more multi-unit and higher density housing across the six cities linked to existing transport hubs and city centres,” Barker says. “But, more needs to be done to support affordable housing that is linked to transport. “We will bring together the three layers of government to ensure planning addresses the current housing challenges of affordability, supply and diversity and the commission will continue to protect and enhance environmental, social and economic values in rural areas—as outlined in the Greater Sydney Region Plan of 2018.” You are currently experiencing The Urban Developer Plus (TUD+), our premium membership for property professionals. Click here to learn more.
