Planning Changes Slated for 2025

While 2024 has been a year of intensive focus on housing affordability and supply, this year will be the industry’s crystallising moment. Speaking exclusively to The Urban Developer , Urbis research and strategic knowledge manager James White says 2025 is the year of planning shake-ups. As the nation grapples with a Federal mandate to deliver 1.2 million well-located homes by July of 2029, what is apparent is the need for a more streamlined planning process and clearer policies on how to build out supply. States along the eastern seaboard have been working to streamline planning processes for much of 2024 with new state-facilitated planning pathways and a heavy focus on infill and affordable development policies. But a nationwide planner shortage is significantly testing councils’ and state governments’ capacity to digest the high volumes of development applications, according to White. “At the moment everyone’s struggling. Whether you’re in the private sector or whether you’re local government or state government, there’s a shortage of planners,” White says. “Planning doesn’t build things. Planning just gives the approvals. “We’re going to see everywhere there will be some shifts and changes within the planning assessment framework in every state and territory to actually try to do things quicker.” ▲ Urbis’ James White says AI could be the first big disruptor in the planning industry, and could streamline planning approvals. And artificial intelligence could provide some of the solutions. White says the NSW Government is running a trial of AI as part of planning. Sixteen councils will test the technology to speed up development assessment timeframes as part of the government’s $5.6-million investment in introducing artificial intelligence into the planning system. White says it “can actually build capacity” within the planning system by reducing the number of information requests and taking on much of the legwork in the process. “This is the first kind of tangible disruptor that we’ve really had, which is both scary and opportunistic as well,” he says. Planners were recently added to the skilled migrant visa program, which could also move the needle on workforce shortages and planning timeframes, which have also received heavy scrutiny with the Council League Table which reveals average approval timeframes. TODs trend rising Transport-oriented development precincts (TODs) have “always been around”, White says, but they are a big opportunity for good densification of cities. “Now it’s the big buzzword. It’s just well-planned precincts, well-located housing in addition to commercial land use, good transport outcomes, good social outcomes, open space, and everything else that goes with it,” he says. “Most states are now leaning into TODs, they’re essentially just transport or transit-oriented development, which is good planning.” White says transformative infrastructure is crucial to the success of planning, which has been highlighted with the opening of the Sydney Metro, and something he says could be replicated with the realisation of both the Suburban Rail Loop in Melbourne and high speed rail connecting cities and regions. “The opening of the Metro was such a celebration in Sydney, and I think everyone nationally was quite jealous,” he says. “And it’s kind of ramped up the anticipation of the opening of the SRL in Melbourne as well. That same kind of community emphasis and excitement will be behind that as well. That’s transformative infrastructure. ▲ Waterloo Sydney Metro station, part of the transformative transport infrastructure project that opened in 2024. “It really changes that public perception around what can be achieved and what we should be doing.” White says more detail is still needed on how these TOD precincts will be delivered and whether the planning provides enough incentive for developing density and more affordable housing. Incentivising social and affordable housing “It’s all about getting keys in doors,” White says. July of 2024 marked the start of the Australian Housing Accord, while in September Housing Australia announced it had selected 185 projects in the first round of the Housing Australia Future Fund. The preferred projects include more than 4200 social and 9500 affordable homes, and a second round has recently been fast-tracked with a focus to deliver more social housing as quickly as possible to meet the overall program objective of 40,000 social and affordable homes in the next five years. ▲ Brisbane Housing Company will deliver 201 social and affordable homes in the Hamilton Northshore area. White says while inclusionary zoning is nothing new, without incentives such as greater height and floor space ratios (FSR) and government funding, it is hard to get projects to stack up. “If there is no incentive, there’s little likelihood that those [social and affordable homes] will actually be delivered,” White says. A looming federal election could also raise questions about some of the bigger housing and precinct funding programs. “Those are all things we are watching,” he says. “What will the outcome of the Federal election mean for the future of cities? Ultimately, whoever does win the election, whether it’s the encumbent government or whether it’s a new government, they’re still going to inherit the same problem. “But it’s what strategies they’ll employ to actually solve that or help to address it that will be really important. I suppose a lot of the hard graft has been done, the funds have been allocated, the promises have been made, and now it’s all about following through on those and actually having the strategies in place to actually deliver on them.” National Urban Planning Policy The Federal government released its draft National Urban Policy earlier this year, which centres on five main goals—liveability, equity, productivity, sustainability and resilience. It sets national priorities around good planning, but a few big-ticket items left out of the document, particularly high-speed rail, smart cities, and addressing urban sprawl. ▲ Melbourne’s growth corridors experienced unprecedented demand and price growth during the pandemic-led housing boom. White says the State of the Cities report is also yet to be released. “It’s a tracker of how cities are going, and I think it would be really telling in terms of how cities are developing, how they’re growing, and how they are faring in a national context,” he says. “We’ve had a number of housing support programs announced this year and we need more deetail on how those will be rolled out, whether it’s enabling infrastructure and enrichment, or improving planning capacity in relation to enabling infrastructure.” Cities need strategic planning Regional plans are due to be updated across the country according to White, who says South Australia is “doing a lot in terms of actually building up a strategic planning”. “Victoria is looking at their regional plan as well … regions like Geelong, south-east Queensland and Newcastle are thriving. “There are all these reforms happening … Is Sydney still a city of six cities or has it gone back to being three cities plus these major metropolitan regions outside of Sydney?” White says housing targets were released in lieu of a regional plan, which he says is “quite concerning”. “To map out what Sydney looks like from a co-ordinated infrastructure provision, from all the other land uses that are not just housing, you need to have that vision to be able to grow a city effectively. And strategic planning is core to that,” he says. “Industrial land has almost been forgotten in the mix, which is a bit concerning because ... that’s chief in terms of actually making a city run effectively. “You need effective industrial land and that’s kind of where strategic planning comes in, and really good strategic planning to map out the future of industrial areas.” ▲ The Amazon robotics fulfilment centre at Goodman’s Oakdale West Industrial Estate in Western Sydney. White says land use management and infrastructure provision is a critical issue across most states, which will come into sharp focus in 2025. “It is the thing that is a real issue because five years ago infrastructure was way cheaper to actually deliver, and now it’s causing planning delays. “Planning is only one facet of a really big kind of engine that is just unbelievably complex.” Greater Sydney Regional Plan White anticipates a new Greater Sydney Regional Plan being revealed in 2025, which would drive a revised vision for the Harbour City. White says the current regional plan was finalised in 2018 and “a lot has happened” that needs to be reflected in the strategic plan for Sydney. “The metro is opened. We know that there’s an industrial land supply crisis, but part of that review for the regional plan will be looking at what is the policy of retain and manage in terms of industrial land. “Whether that’s going to be opened up to flexibility, but if there’s going to be more industrial land planned. So I think that’s something that we’ve always highlighted is a big core component of the housing that you need to actually be planning in tandem, more industrial land as well at the same time, because that’s good strategic planning.” Fast rail a missing link While it has become a bit of a political football, fast rail remains a critical missing link in connecting cities and regions across Australia. “When you talk about regions and unlocking growth in regions, that program was really important for that. ▲ A business case by the High Speed Rail Authority was due by the end of 2024. “There has been a lot of money and ambition plugged into that fast rail project. It’s aspirational for good planning. You need to be visionary and have aspirations for actually looking at something like a fast rail to actually activate regions and get people living outside of metropolitan areas which are squeezed to their capacity already.” The High Speed Rail Authority (HSRA) was due to provide a business case to the government by the end of 2024 . It is expected that the business case will include proposed alignments, station locations, train types and the estimated cost and timeframe for constructing the line. You are currently experiencing The Urban Developer Plus (TUD+), our premium membership for property professionals. Click here to learn more.

Planning Changes Slated for 2025

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