Migration to Regions ‘Only Just Beginning’

The move from cities to the region won’t end anytime soon, with the move to hybrid and remote working options helping fuel and sustain the migration.

According to Oliver Hume national head of research George Bougias, the hybrid and remote working trend was only just beginning and underpinned why many were making moves to the regions.

“Once you see it, you can’t unsee it,” Bougias said.

“It is fair to say, in some ways, we are not going back to what we knew, given the scale of what has occurred and the learnings we have gained.”

Bougias will be among speakers at The Urban Developer’s Residential Greenfields Summit to be held Thursday, July 28, outlining what is expected within the market in the next few months and beyond.

Bougias highlighted that both push and pull factors were at play.

“Push factors, such as housing shortages and affordability challenges in key metropolitan markets (as shown by very low vacancy rates), are operating simultaneously with pull factors, such as lifestyle, work-life balance, the ability to work from home, the desire for more space or lower densities,” he said.

“We expect that we are only at the beginning of a major transformation in where people choose to live.”

Bougias also expects to see increased population in regional cities drive an increase in businesses and jobs, and a demand for services and amenities which in turn will attract more people.

“Large regional centres, especially coastal locations, continue to attract people but we are now seeing other locations, including smaller regional cities and more removed towns, including inland locations, receiving buyer and developer interest,” he said.

▲ Mirvac's greenfield project in Cobbity, NSW—an example of how developers are reacting to the increased demand for housing in regional areas.

Bougias also predicts that some locations could be preferred by different demographics, with younger people sometimes gravitating to different locations than older groups.

“Some regional locations with smaller populations and-or more removed from capital cities could also see increased demand over the medium to long term,” he said.

“This process will be very nuanced and will be often driven by factors specific to each location.

“Smaller regional locations that are connected and close to large regional centres could also see increased demand.”

Oliver Hume’s data for Victoria in June 2022 shows buyers adjusting to rising interest rates and the cost of living.

“Low interest rates helped many people move to the regions,” Bougias said.

“Higher interest rates could slow this movement, albeit temporarily.”

Enquiries and reservations dropped in June 2022 but the rate at which these figures were declining was lower than in May, signaling a correction or slowing down of the market rather than a rapid decline.

Oliver Hume’s report said that 2022 data so far was showing it to be a year where the market was returning to more long term trends after a record year in 2021.

Buyers were generally buying either within the first seven days or the second 14 days after enquiring.

June also outperformed May in how many buyers purchased within the first 21 days after enquiries with nearly two-thirds of all purchases falling into this category.

Looking to understand more about Australia’s Residential Greenfield market? Tune in to The Urban Developer's upcoming vSummit on Thursday, 28 July. Click here to secure your ticket.

Investors bought over a third of all lots with owner-occupiers, including first home buyers, buying the rest, though the proportion of the latter was still below the long-term average.

“We continue to see professionals and managers-administrators representing amongst the key buyer groups in the residential greenfield market,” Bougias said.

The median lot price was $388,000, the median lot size was 400sq m and the median time taken to purchase was within 12 days.

“We will continue to see change in the coming decades driven by various current and emerging demographic, economic, social, technology and other trends,” Bougias said.

“Younger people today are generally the most technologically able cohort we have ever had and have more opportunities than ever before to work remotely and-or use a hybrid work model.”