ebf254d1-933b-4729-b359-93324d92b7ad

<div class="row" data-reactroot=""><div class="cell cs12 cx12"><div class="row ci"><div class="cell cs12 cx12"><div class="ci cl"><p>There has been no shortage of reporting about the relatively strong performance of regional Australian dwelling markets over 2020. </p><p><a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/corelogic-december-home-value-indices">December home value data</a> showed the combined regional dwelling market increased 6.9 per cent in value over the year; a growth rate more than three times the rate of the combined capital cities.</p><p>But even more impressive than value changes in 2020, is the return that some areas have shown in the longer term.</p></div></div></div><div class="row ci"><div class="cell cs12 cx12"><div class="ci cl"><p><strong>Rolling annual growth in dwelling values</strong></p></div></div></div><div class="row ci"><div class="cell cs12 cx12"><div class="ci cl"><div><picture><img src="https://tud-prod-tudmedia-oj9w2zshuo0o.s3.amazonaws.com/raw/images/b656c657-1de6-4a6c-9d7e-54f36ec5201c.jpg" width="962"/></picture><div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="row ci"><div class="cell cs12 cx12"><div class="ci cl"><p><sup><sub>^Source: Corelogic</sub></sup></p></div></div></div><div class="row ci"><div class="cell cs12 cx12"><div class="ci cl"><p>This can be seen when looking at 10 year annualised growth rates, which is what growth in an asset value would be if it had the same growth rate every year for 10 years. </p><p>By this metric, some secondary cities’ have performed just as well as, if not better than, their capital city counterparts. This is a particularly prominent trend across the eastern seaboard.</p><p>This set of charts shows that 10 year annualised growth rates in large, coastal dwelling markets are closer to the performance of capital city sub markets than the rest of regional Australia.</p><p>In NSW, 10 year annualised growth rates were 5.0 per cent across Illawarra, and 4.5 per cent across both the Newcastle Lake Macquarie region, and the Southern Highlands and Shoalhaven region. </p><p>This compares to an average of 5.1 per cent across the Sydney sub markets, and an average of just 2.1 per cent across the rest of regional NSW.</p><p>In Victoria, Geelong has a long run annualised growth rate of 4.1 per cent, which is also closer to the average of the capital cities (3.7 per cent) than the rest of regional Victoria (2.7 per cent).</p><p>Across Queensland, the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast have seen long term growth rates align more closely with average increases across the capital city sub markets (1.5 per cent). </p><p>But further to this, the 10 year annualised growth rates have surpassed the increases in every other capital city and regional sub market across the sunshine state.</p></div></div></div><div class="row ci"><div class="cell cs12 cx12"><div class="ci cl"><p><strong>10 year annualised change in dwelling values: NSW</strong></p></div></div></div><div class="row ci"><div class="cell cs12 cx12"><div class="ci cl"><div><picture><img src="https://tud-prod-tudmedia-oj9w2zshuo0o.s3.amazonaws.com/raw/images/933f95cf-18cf-4c39-a4b4-076885e5d5d1.jpg" width="1514"/></picture><div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="row ci"><div class="cell cs12 cx12"><div class="ci cl"><p><sup><sub>^Source: Corelogic</sub></sup></p></div></div></div><div class="row ci"><div class="cell cs12 cx12"><div class="ci cl"><p><strong>10 year annualised change in dwelling values: Vic</strong></p></div></div></div><div class="row ci"><div class="cell cs12 cx12"><div class="ci cl"><div><picture><img src="https://tud-prod-tudmedia-oj9w2zshuo0o.s3.amazonaws.com/raw/images/87ba2d2d-cc40-49b8-a4d7-7799d546f0ef.jpg" width="1514"/></picture><div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="row ci"><div class="cell cs12 cx12"><div class="ci cl"><p><sup><sub>^Source: Corelogic</sub></sup></p></div></div></div><div class="row ci"><div class="cell cs12 cx12"><div class="ci cl"><p><strong>10 year annualised change in dwelling values: Qld</strong></p></div></div></div><div class="row ci"><div class="cell cs12 cx12"><div class="ci cl"><div><picture><img src="https://tud-prod-tudmedia-oj9w2zshuo0o.s3.amazonaws.com/raw/images/672b1615-f684-46a4-8340-bf57d79aa5e6.jpg" width="1520"/></picture><div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="row ci"><div class="cell cs12 cx12"><div class="ci cl"><p><sup><sub>^Source: Corelogic</sub></sup></p></div></div></div><div class="row ci"><div class="cell cs12 cx12"><div class="ci cl"><h2><br><strong>Covid may have exacerbated the trend, but did not start it</strong></h2></div></div></div><div class="row ci"><div class="cell cs12 cx12"><div class="ci cl"><p>Why have major coastal markets performed so well in the past decade? </p><p>A major driver of dwelling market value increases comes from population growth. </p><p>Out of 88 sub markets across Australia, the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast have seen the highest volume of net internal migration, or arrivals minus departures from other parts of the country, for the three years to June 2019. </p><p>Over this time, these markets gained 39,770 additional residents from other parts of Australia.</p><p>While the trend of moving from capital cities to regional Australia is nothing new, Covid-19 may have exacerbated the desirability of regional Australia. </p><p>This may be because relatively strict restrictions were implemented across major capital cities, and remote work has been increasingly enforced as a way to combat the spread of Covid-19.</p><p>But population growth is unlikely to be the only factor at play. </p><p>The Illawarra region attracted just 718 additional residents internally in the three years to June 2019, but has one of the highest annualised 10 year returns of regional Australian dwelling markets. </p><p>One of the reasons for the longer term popularity of markets major coastal centres could be proximity to major cities.</p><p>The rise of cities within a &quot;commutable distance&quot; to the capital cities have enabled a regional lifestyle with the benefit of maintaining access to the employment opportunity and amenity of the capitals. </p><p>This combination has attracted a greater price premium over time. Previous notes have also reflected on the idea that <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/structural-shift-housing-demand-leading-regional-housing-boom">nearby coastal markets may rise in value as capital cities become less affordable</a>, creating a &quot;spill over&quot; of demand as people are priced out of cities.</p><p>With a positive outlook in place for housing assets in 2021, regional Australian dwelling markets may continue to rise in value. Looking back, these results suggest the best long term returns are not always found in the capital city dwelling markets.</p></div></div></div></div></div>

There has been no shortage of reporting about the relatively strong performance of regional Australian dwelling markets over 2020...

The longevity of Australia’s regional residential boom will depend on credit, affordability and working policies as seven regions record growth in excess of 30 per cent.

<div class="row" data-reactroot=""><div class="cell cs12 cx12"><div class="row ci"><div class="cell cs12 cx12"><div class="ci cl"><p>The longevity of Australia’s regional residential boom will depend on credit, affordability and working policies as seven regions record growth in excess of 30 per cent.</p><p></p><p>The top-performing regions for the 12 months to October 31 were generally coastal or lifestyle properties within two hours of a capital city, according to Corelogic’s regional market update.</p><p></p><p>The report found that the Southern Highlands and Shoalhaven region in NSW led regional house price growth at 35.9 per cent followed by NSW’s Richmond-Tweed and the Sunshine Coast in Queensland.</p><p></p><p>However, not all areas were winners with Townsville, Queensland recording the lowest growth rate at just 8 per cent, compared to the <a href="https://www.theurbandeveloper.com/articles/storm-brewing-over-australian-housing-market">national average of 21.6 per cent</a>.</p><p></p><p>For units, Queensland’s Wide Bay region recorded an annual growth rate of 29.2 per cent closely followed by the Sunshine Coast at 29.1 per cent.</p><p></p><p><strong>Top 10 performing regions for house and unit price growth</strong></p><p></p></div></div></div><div class="row ci"><div class="cell cs12 cx12"><div class="ci cl"><table><thead><tr><th>Rank</th><th>Houses</th><th>Units</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><th>1</th><th>Southern Highlands and Shoalhaven NSW 35.9%</th><th>Wide Bay Qld 29.2%</th></tr><tr><th>2</th><th>Richmond-Tweed NSW 32.8%</th><th>Sunshine Coast Qld 29.1%</th></tr><tr><th>3</th><th>Sunshine Coast Qld 32.3%</th><th>Geelong Vic 27.8%</th></tr><tr><th>4</th><th>Newcastle and Lake Macquarie NSW 31.3%</th><th>Hume Vic 27.7%</th></tr><tr><th>5</th><th>Gold Coast Qld 31.3% </th><th>Launceston and North East Tas 26.7%</th></tr><tr><th>6</th><th>Launceston and North East Tas 31.2%</th><th>Richmond-Tweed NSW 25.8%</th></tr><tr><th>7</th><th>Hunter Valley (exc Newcastle) NSW 30.3%</th><th>Southern Highlands and Shoalhaven NSW 24.4%</th></tr><tr><th>8</th><th>Illawarra NSW 28.8%</th><th>Gold Coast Qld 24.4%</th></tr><tr><th>9</th><th>Mid North Coast NSW 27.5%</th><th>Capital Region NSW 24.0%</th></tr><tr><th>10</th><th>Latrobe Vic 25.3%</th><th>Mid North Coast NSW 23.1%</th></tr></tbody></table></div></div></div><div class="row ci"><div class="cell cs12 cx12"><div class="ci cl"><p><sup><sub>^Source: Corelogic regional home value index October 2021</sub></sup></p><p>Tight stock also influenced prices and the time on the market, with properties on the Gold Coast selling in just 18 days, compared to the New England and North-West NSW where houses took 62 days to sell. </p><p>CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless said there had been a broad demographic shift during the pandemic but the regions would still be <a href="https://www.theurbandeveloper.com/articles/house-prices-rise-through-interest-rate-hikes">constrained by similar factors as capital cities</a>.</p><p></p><p>“If housing values across regional parts of the country continue to outpace the capitals, the obvious outcome will be that regional markets lose their affordability advantage,” Lawless said.</p><p></p><p>“We can already see this trend taking shape in some of the most popular regional coastal markets such as Byron Bay, where median house values are $1.7 million, and Noosa on the Sunshine Coast, where median house values are $1.2 million, much higher than comparable capital city values.”</p><p></p><p>The big four banks have predicted house prices in capital cities would <a href="https://www.theurbandeveloper.com/articles/cba-bank-predicts-house-price-drop-10pc">drop in 2023 by up to 10 per cent</a>, however, this was before the latest Covid variant of concern had been identified.</p></div></div></div></div></div>

 The longevity of Australia’s regional residential boom will depend on credit, affordability and working policies as seven regions record growth in e

REGIONAL PROPERTY MARKET